6 Jun 2022
Last Week’s Pricing & Commentary
|
Commodity |
Unit |
Settlement Price |
Change Since 01 Jan 22 |
Change on Week |
E&S Desk View |
|
|
UK Gas NBP Jul 22 |
p/therm |
159.84 |
4.39% |
-6.86% |
||
|
UK Gas NBP Winter 22 |
p/therm |
241.50 |
42.57% |
-1.64% |
Continued low liquidity due to European bank holidays |
|
|
UK Gas NBP Summer 23 |
p/therm |
182.00 |
127.41% |
4.51% |
||
|
UK Power Base Jun 22 |
£/MWh |
168.00 |
17.01% |
-6.11% |
||
|
UK Power Base Winter 22 |
£/MWh |
242.97 |
50.54% |
-1.10% |
||
|
UK Power Base Summer 23 |
£/MWh |
167.42 |
88.39% |
2.40% |
||
|
Carbon EUA Dec 22 |
€/tonne |
86.87 |
8.86% |
3.17% |
||
|
Carbon UKA Dec 22 |
£/tonne |
82.66 |
10.80% |
0.57% |
||
|
Oil Brent Crude Aug 22 |
$/barrel |
119.72 |
57.86% |
3.60% |
||
The long jubilee bank holiday meant the market moves across the week were small and liquidity remained very low. Front month gas saw moves down of 11.77p/therm whilst the back-end Summer 23 contracts rose 7.85p/therm with worries that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue to place pressure on gas supplies for longer. Power followed these moves, July-22 down £10.94/MWh and Summer-23 contracts up £3.92/MWh. Carbon markets saw continued strength, up €2.67/tonne on the week, amid proposals for a 63% cut in EU ETS emissions compared to 2005 levels. UKAs edged higher, up $0.47/tonne following the move in EUAs. Brent saw a week of strength as the EU closed a deal to limit some Russian oil imports. Global concerns amid a shortening of supply have provided continued strength to contracts, helping it to near the $120/barrel in front month Aug-22 contracts. Wind generation was minimal at the start of the week, remaining below 4GW before picking up >7GW on Friday and Saturday. Gas picked up the shortfall in wind generation averaging 45.65% of the stack at 15:00PM over the week.
Last Week’s Average Generation Stack
|
Gas |
Wind |
Solar |
Hydro |
Nuclear |
Imports & Exports |
Biomass |
Pumped Storage |
Coal |
|
|
GW |
15.10 |
4.14 |
4.92 |
0.25 |
5.42 |
0.90 |
2.33 |
0.02 |
0.00 |
|
% |
45.65 |
12.51 |
14.88 |
0.75 |
16.38 |
2.72 |
7.04 |
0.06 |
0.00 |
This Morning’s View
This morning has seen gas moves down on the open, July-22 NBP contracts dropping 1.33p/therm and Winter-23 offering at 200p/therm. EUAs Dec-22 drop €1.97/tonne and UKAs down £0.06/tonne. Power expected to follow the weakness in gas and carbon. Brent gains on the open, up above $120/barrel amid news of Saudi Arabia raising their crude prices. The NTS is forecast 26.7mcm short as power station, heating and interconnector export remain high. Wind is generating <4GW of the stack this morning as it drops from levels seen at the weekend.
Wider news
Carbon prices rise ahead of key market reform vote.
Grass to power thousands of Reading homes at new gas mill.
Ukraine war no excuse for prolonging coal.
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