WEEKLY ENERGY MARKET UPDATE - 06/06/22

6 Jun 2022

Home WEEKLY ENERGY MARKET UPDATE - 06/06/22

Last Week’s Pricing & Commentary  

Commodity

Unit

Settlement Price

Change Since 01 Jan 22

Change on Week

E&S Desk View

UK Gas NBP Jul 22

p/therm

159.84

4.39%

-6.86%

   

UK Gas NBP Winter 22

p/therm

241.50

42.57%

-1.64%

Continued low liquidity due to European bank holidays

UK Gas NBP Summer 23

p/therm

182.00

127.41%

4.51%

UK Power Base Jun 22

£/MWh

168.00

17.01%

-6.11%

UK Power Base Winter 22

£/MWh

242.97

50.54%

-1.10%

UK Power Base Summer 23

£/MWh

167.42

88.39%

2.40%

Carbon EUA Dec 22

€/tonne

86.87

8.86%

3.17%

Carbon UKA Dec 22

£/tonne

82.66

10.80%

0.57%

Oil Brent Crude Aug 22

$/barrel

119.72

57.86%

3.60%

 

The long jubilee bank holiday meant the market moves across the week were small and liquidity remained very low. Front month gas saw moves down of 11.77p/therm whilst the back-end Summer 23 contracts rose 7.85p/therm with worries that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will continue to place pressure on gas supplies for longer. Power followed these moves, July-22 down £10.94/MWh and Summer-23 contracts up £3.92/MWh. Carbon markets saw continued strength, up €2.67/tonne on the week, amid proposals for a 63% cut in EU ETS emissions compared to 2005 levels. UKAs edged higher, up $0.47/tonne following the move in EUAs. Brent saw a week of strength as the EU closed a deal to limit some Russian oil imports. Global concerns amid a shortening of supply have provided continued strength to contracts, helping it to near the $120/barrel in front month Aug-22 contracts. Wind generation was minimal at the start of the week, remaining below 4GW before picking up >7GW on Friday and Saturday. Gas picked up the shortfall in wind generation averaging 45.65% of the stack at 15:00PM over the week.

 

Last Week’s Average Generation Stack

 

Gas

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Imports & Exports

Biomass

Pumped Storage

Coal

GW

15.10

4.14

4.92

0.25

5.42

0.90

2.33

0.02

0.00

%

45.65

12.51

14.88

0.75

16.38

2.72

7.04

0.06

0.00

 

This Morning’s View

This morning has seen gas moves down on the open, July-22 NBP contracts dropping 1.33p/therm and Winter-23 offering at 200p/therm. EUAs Dec-22 drop €1.97/tonne and UKAs down £0.06/tonne. Power expected to follow the weakness in gas and carbon. Brent gains on the open, up above $120/barrel amid news of Saudi Arabia raising their crude prices. The NTS is forecast 26.7mcm short as power station, heating and interconnector export remain high. Wind is generating <4GW of the stack this morning as it drops from levels seen at the weekend.

Wider news

Carbon prices rise ahead of key market reform vote.

Grass to power thousands of Reading homes at new gas mill.

Ukraine war no excuse for prolonging coal.

 

Market Report Disclaimer

 

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