WEEKLY ENERGY MARKET UPDATE - 16/05/2022

16 May 2022

Home WEEKLY ENERGY MARKET UPDATE - 16/05/2022

Last Week’s Pricing & Commentary  

Commodity

Unit

Settlement Price

Change Since 01 Jan 22

Change on Week

E&S Desk View

UK Gas NBP Jun 22

p/therm

148.45

-3.05%

15.34%

Volatility continues as global energy outlook to be shaped by headlines. 

UK Gas NBP Winter 22

p/therm

248.00

46.41%

8.63%

UK Gas NBP Summer 23

p/therm

173.17

116.38%

-0.56%

UK Power Base Jun 22

£/MWh

167.29

16.51%

7.62%

UK Power Base Winter 22

£/MWh

244.27

51.35%

5.53%

UK Power Base Summer 23

£/MWh

163.78

84.29%

-0.36%

Carbon EUA Dec 22

€/tonne

88.48

10.88%

1.68%

Carbon UKA Dec 22

£/tonne

84.10

12.73%

-3.61%

Oil Brent Crude July 22

$/barrel

111.55

47.09%

5.30%

 

Last week showed much volatility over the markets in general before settling lower late on Friday afternoon. Continued volatility remained as Russian threats to cut off supply via the Yamal pipeline may negatively impact many European nations next winter. Jun-22 NBP contracts saw strength settling at 175.55p/therm on Thursday before selling off on Friday to settle at 148.45p/therm. Power followed moves in gas, with Jun-22 UBL up £11.84/MWh on the week. Continued disagreements within the EU on the scale of additional Russian oil sanctions have helped to keep Brent Dec-22 contracts high up at more than $110/barrel. Continued worries on global economic growth means OPEC+ is attempting to balance increase in supply with growth forecasts. Continued lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing remains a bearish factor in both the oil and LNG markets. UKAs saw weakness across the week and dropped £3.15/tonne. EUAs increased a small amount up 1.46/tonne. Wind generation picked up and on average provided 31.65% of the grid stack.

 

Last Week’s Average Generation Stack

 

Gas

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Imports & Exports

Biomass

Pumped Storage

Coal

GW

11.90

11.72

4.73

0.28

5.29

1.11

1.65

0.35

0.00

%

32.14

31.65

12.77

0.76

14.29

3.00

4.46

0.93

0.00

 

This Morning’s View

LNG flow to the UK is expected to remain healthy this week and above the norm for May. Wind is forecast to be slightly above seasonal norms (contributing 12.33GW at 09:30). NBP Jun-22 has moved up above 160p/therm. The NTS is forecast 4.8mcm short as interconnector export of gas to Europe remains high and gas to power generation making up 16.46GW of the stack at the time of writing. Brent Dec-22 contracts edge down to $110.74/barrel but remains high as Hungary continues to oppose Russian oil sanctions. EUAs have ticked up to 89.65/tonne this morning.

 

Wider news

Ukraine hopes to boost export capacity by 50% after synchronising with EU’s grid.

Sweden defies threats from Russia in move to join NATO.

UK’s nuclear power push will add to energy bills.

 

Market Report Disclaimer

 

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