23 May 2022
Last Week’s Pricing & Commentary
|
Commodity |
Unit |
Settlement Price |
Change Since 01 Jan 22 |
Change on Week |
E&S Desk View |
|
UK Gas NBP Jun 22 |
p/therm |
147.96 |
-3.37% |
-0.33% |
Market to be bearish as European payments for Russian gas go through with minimal issues. |
|
UK Gas NBP Winter 22 |
p/therm |
229.01 |
35.20% |
-7.66% |
|
|
UK Gas NBP Summer 23 |
p/therm |
168.26 |
110.25% |
-2.83% |
|
|
UK Power Base Jun 22 |
£/MWh |
157.21 |
9.49% |
-6.03% |
|
|
UK Power Base Winter 22 |
£/MWh |
231.47 |
43.41% |
-5.24% |
|
|
UK Power Base Summer 23 |
£/MWh |
157.93 |
77.70% |
-3.57% |
|
|
Carbon EUA Dec 22 |
€/tonne |
80.39 |
0.74% |
-9.14% |
|
|
Carbon UKA Dec 22 |
£/tonne |
82.37 |
10.42% |
-2.06% |
|
|
Oil Brent Crude July 22 |
$/barrel |
112.55 |
48.40% |
0.90% |
The markets continued their volatile, headline driven moves as all eyes remained on Friday’s European payments for Russian gas deliveries. Nervousness around the market caused June-22 gas and power contracts to rise to around the 185.23p/therm mark and £181/MWh. Continued high LNG deliveries, alongside warm and windy weather forecasts for early June helped to provide weakness for the gas markets. A late sell off on Friday ensued after a lack of headline around payments for Russian gas, suggesting a move more back in line with fundamentals. EUAs saw a drop off in value from the highs of the previous week. It looks set to remain around the €80-85/MWh mark. Any movement lower than €80/MWh could trigger its retreat down towards €70/MWh level. UKAs followed moves in EUAs but not to the same extent, moving £1.73/MWh lower. Brent continued its volatile trading with significant intra-day moves. It saw moves down to settle at $109.11/barrel for July-22 contracts on Wednesday before rising back up to settle near flat on the week. Traders were balancing news around a slowdown in global economic growth and covid-19 lockdown easing in China. Wind generation started the week strong before dropping off, with sunny weather allowing solar to provide >6 GW on average at 15:00 through the week.
Last Week’s Average Generation Stack
|
Gas |
Wind |
Solar |
Hydro |
Nuclear |
Imports & Exports |
Biomass |
Pumped Storage |
Coal |
|
|
GW |
13.39 |
8.39 |
6.09 |
0.22 |
5.40 |
0.72 |
0.62 |
0.01 |
0.00 |
|
% |
38.44 |
24.08 |
17.47 |
0.64 |
15.49 |
2.06 |
1.79 |
0.03 |
0.00 |
This Morning’s View
This morning has started with gas weaker but moves up in Carbon and oil. Minimal issues with Russian gas payments means that the gas market is expected to be bearish with strong LNG flows, warm and windy weather taking the pressure off gas demand. June-22 NBP contracts last traded at 140.00p/therm, down 7.96p/therm on Friday’s settlement. EUAs Dec-22 are up €0.32/tonne regaining some value lost last week. Brent July-22 has traded up $0.71/barrel as demand rises alongside falling storage levels. The NTS is forecast 19.9mcm short as wind generation drops, increasing power station demand.
Wider news
Denmark's Topsoe plans Europe's largest electrolyser plant.
Australia election: Anthony Albanese signals climate policy change.
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