Weekly Energy Market Update - 19/04/2021

19 Apr 2021

Home Weekly Energy Market Update - 19/04/2021

Last Week’s Pricing & Commentary

Commodity

Unit

Settlement Price

Change Since 01 Jan 21

Change on Week

UK Gas NBP May 21

p/therm

51.15

16.91%

5.90%

UK Gas NBP Winter 21

p/therm

58.96

14.82%

5.29%

UK Gas NBP Summer 22

p/therm

42.95

8.19%

3.87%

UK Power Base May 21

£/MWh

60.67

14.67%

7.12%

UK Power Base Winter 21

£/MWh

69.13

19.40%

4.24%

UK Power Base Summer 22

£/MWh

51.85

9.50%

3.02%

Carbon EUA Dec 21

€/tonne

44.42

35.84%

2.00%

Oil Brent Crude Jun 21

$/barrel

66.77

29.25%

5.93%

Contracts across the energy complex posted gains, lifted by particularly low wind output and cooler temperatures at the start of the week elevating demand well above seasonal norms followed by forecasts of lower temperatures expected towards the end of this month. May 21 NBP rose by 2.85p/therm over the course of the week, with settlement-to-settlement gains occurring from Tuesday through to Friday, despite slight within-day losses on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Contracts along the curve found similar support, with the addition of strong EUAs, with Winter 21 and Summer 22 NBP rising by 2.96p/therm and 1.60p/therm, respectively. Aside from providing support to prices, system tightness caused by low wind output and low temperatures at the start of the week brought above increased volatility to pricing, with system and day-ahead prices soaring. System prices reached £320/MWh on Monday morning before completely shattering this level and hitting a high of £1,971/MWh between 8-9 pm on the same day. Volatility continued with some SP’s recording £0/MWh pricing whilst others priced in the £100’s on occasion. Power prices moved in line with gas, well supported by strong carbon too, with May 21, Winter 21 and Summer 22 baseload prices increasing by £4.03/MWh, £2.81/MWh, and £1.52/MWh, respectively.

Carbon prices were no stranger to volatility last week either, with Dec 21 EUAs regularly trading in over €1 ranges. The contract hit a new high on Friday, touching €44.90/tonne but failing to break through €50 or maintain this level. The contract eventually settled €0.38/tonne higher on the week despite some big swings in prices over the course of the week. Brent prices were fairly sideways at the start and end of the week with the big price move and talking point occurring on Wednesday with Jun 21 Brent trading in c. $3 range. A report from EIA and supporting U.S inventory data showed signs of increasing crude demand. With U.S consumption of fuel at its highest since last August, oil markets were spurred on by optimism. The contract ended the week up $0.56/barrel, helped by the bullish move on Wednesday and strong data out of China easing demand recovery anxiety. 

Last Week’s Average Generation Stack

 

Gas

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Nuclear

Imports & Exports

Biomass

Pumped Storage

Coal

GW

16.22

2.27

6.20

0.32

5.20

2.80

2.16

0.00

0.76

%

45.15

6.31

17.26

0.88

14.47

7.80

6.00

0.00

2.11

This Morning’s View

Gas has jumped at the open, with May 21 and Winter 21 NBP up 1.34p/therm and 1.19p/therm already. Despite ample length in the system, currently 17.9mcm, demand slipping back in line with seasonal norms and renewable output expecting to rise, gas and carbon are both being pulled higher early on today. It is possible low wind output and cooler temperatures through to the end of this month are helping to support pricing. Dec 21 EUAs are up €0.39/tonne currently, comfortably above €44/tonne, and eyeing Friday’s all-time high. Oil prices were shifting lower as COVID-19 cases are surging in India and other countries, creating anxiety around expected demand recovery timelines. Jun 21 Brent is flat to settlement currently, although prices remain around 1-month highs. 
 

Market Report Disclaimer 
The information provided in this market report is intended for Brook Green Supply Limited clients and subscribers only. The content is provided and intended for general information purposes only. All pricing stated in this market report is indicative, at the time of writing, and may not be attained in trading at any time after report publication. For the avoidance of doubt, Brook Green Supply Limited does not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content, expressed or implied, nor are we acting in any capacity as a fiduciary to you. Recipients of this market report must not rely on the information and are advised to take any necessary steps to validate such information, independently assess the economic risks and merits and make your own assessment, or appoint appropriate advisors, on any legal or tax consequences before acting upon it. Under no circumstances will Brook Green Supply Limited have any liability for any loss or damage caused by dependence on any information contained within this market report. Please contact our execution and solutions desk via tradingdesk@brookgreensupply.com for further information. 
 

 

Be notified when we add a new articles